वैक्सीन नहीं बनी तो भारत में 2021 में रोजाना आएंगे कोरोना के 2.87 लाख केस,

Posted on by RAKHAL DAS

वैक्सीन नहीं बनी तो भारत में 2021 में रोजाना आएंगे कोरोना के 2.87 लाख केस,

मैसाचुसेट्स इंस्टीट्यूट ऑफ टेक्नोलॉजी के रिसर्च के मुताबिक, कोरोनो वायरस महामारी का सबसे बुरा दौर अभी आने वाला है। भारत में भी कोरोना वैक्सीन या दवाई के बिना आने वाले महीनों में कोविड-19 के मामलों में भारी उछाल देखने को मिल सकता है। रिसर्च के अनुसार, 2021 के अंत तक हर दिन 2.87 लाख मामलों के साथ भारत दुनिया में सबसे अधिक प्रभावित देश बन सकता है।

एमआईटी के स्लोन स्कूल ऑफ मैनेजमेंट के हाजी रहमानंद, टीआई लिम और जॉन स्टेरमैन द्वारा आयोजित स्टडी में कहा गया है कि प्रतिदिन अमेरिका में 95,400, दक्षिण अफ्रीका में 20,600, ईरान में 17,000, इंडोनेशिया में 13,200, ब्रिटेन में 4,200, नाइजीरिया में 4,000 मामले सामने आएंगे।

स्टडी के अनुसार, इलाज या टीकाकरण के अभाव में 84 देशों में 2021 249 मिलियन (24.9 करोड़) मामले और 17.5 लाख मौतें हो सकती हैं। साथ ही यह भी कहा गया है कि सोशल डिस्टेंसिंग के महत्व को दोहराया गया है। साथ ही कहा गया है कि भविष्य में कोरोना के संक्रमण का यह आंकड़ा टेस्टिंग पर नहीं, बल्कि संक्रमण को कम करने के लिए सरकार और आम आदमी की इच्छा शक्ति के आधार अनुमानित है।

महाराष्ट्र-दिल्ली के अलावा कई राज्यों में तेजी से फैल रहा कोरोना, संक्रमित कैसे हुए, पता करना मुश्किल

MIT के शोधकर्ताओं ने संख्याओं की भविष्यवाणी करने के लिए SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) मॉडल का इस्तेमाल किया। एसईआईआर एक मानक गणितीय मॉडल है, जिसका उपयोग महामारी विज्ञानियों द्वारा विश्लेषण के लिए किया जाता है। अध्ययन तीन कारकों में दिखता है। पहला, वर्तमान परीक्षण दर और प्रतिक्रिया। दूसरा, यदि टेस्टिंग एक जुलाई से प्रतिदिन 0.1 प्रतिशत बढ़ता है। तीसरा, यदि टेस्टिंग का आंकड़ा मौजूदा स्थिति पर रहता है, एक व्यक्ति से संक्रमण फैलने का दार आठ रहता है।

एमआईटी का यह रिसर्च 84 देशों के अध्ययन पर आधारित है, जिसमें दुनिया की 60 फीसदी आबादी (4.75 अरब लोग) शामिल हैं।

जॉन्स हॉपकिन्स विश्वविद्यालय के अनुसार, वैश्विक COVID-19 मामलों की कुल संख्या बढ़कर 11.7 मिलियन से अधिक हो गई है, जबकि मृत्यु 543,000 है।

For Hindustan : हिन्दुस्तान ई-समाचार पत्र के लिए क्लिक करें epaper.livehindustan.com

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